Daves 2025 Predictions

2025

As we step into 2025, it’s time to share my predictions for where the coffee industry is headed. Making these predictions is equal parts exciting and nerve-wracking.  It’s easy to look back a year later and see how wrong you were…but putting our ideas out there publicly helps us refine our vision, adapt to industry shifts, and invite meaningful conversations

Below, I’ve outlined eight predictions that I believe will shape the coffee industry in the coming year. These aren’t ranked by impact or importance, but together, they reflect a mix of trends, innovations, and challenges that could define 2025.

1. Green Coffee Prices Come Down
In 2024, the C market soared to record highs, surpassing $3.45 per pound. However, futures pricing for mid-2025 indicates a potential cooling-off, with contracts trending closer to $3.00. Factors like improved growing conditions in Brazil and Colombia and a stronger US dollar are expected to apply downward pressure on prices. I anticipate we’ll see prices trade down to around $2.75 in the second half of the year.

While this decline could ease financial strain for roasters and consumers, it poses challenges for producers, especially smallholder farmers, who may find it increasingly difficult to cover production costs. This highlights the ongoing volatility of the coffee market and the need for sustainable pricing models.

2. AI-Powered Quality Control
Love it or hate it, AI is poised to revolutionize coffee quality control in 2025.  Emerging tools for defect identification, roasting optimization, and molecular analysis are leading the way. For example, advanced platforms now use minimal green coffee samples to predict sensory profiles with remarkable precision, providing detailed insights that were once only possible through extensive manual evaluation.

AI has the potential to reduce waste, enhance consistency, and boost efficiency across the supply chain. However, it also raises questions about the balance between technological advancements and the irreplaceable artistry of human craftsmanship. Navigating this shift will require a careful integration of both.

3. Specialty Coffee “Grab and Go”
2025 will see the rise of small-footprint, high-volume coffee shops designed for speed and convenience over artisanal craftsmanship. Think tiny urban kiosks or streamlined service stations offering fast, reliable coffee for busy commuters.  This trend reflects the growing demand for convenience, but it also challenges specialty coffee’s emphasis on craft and quality. 

4. Home Brewing Gets More Competitive
The home brewing boom that began during COVID shows no signs of slowing down. As inflation makes cafe visits more expensive and high-quality brewing equipment becomes increasingly affordable, coffee enthusiasts are turning their kitchens into cafe-worthy spaces. With coffee influencers showcasing aspirational setups and techniques, the trend is set to keep growing, elevating the at-home coffee experience to new heights.

5. Blends Are Back
Did blends ever really leave? In 2025, blends will continue to shine in coffee competitions and cafes alike. They offer an avenue for innovation and cost control, allowing roasters to create signature offerings that resonate with customers while managing fluctuating green coffee costs. Blends provide an opportunity for roasters to stand out and foster customer loyalty.

6. More Inclusivity in Coffee Competitions
Coffee competitions are opening doors to more diverse participants, with new formats and resources making them more accessible globally. Events like Crush the Rush, Roast Masters, Barista League, April Cup, and many other events have brought fresh energy to the competition scene. These formats range from engaging home brewers to celebrating coffee professionals across different specialties, making competitions more approachable and diverse. As inclusivity grows, the coffee community becomes richer, more dynamic, and more connected.

7. Hybrid Coffee Shops
Cafés are becoming multi-functional spaces, combining coffee with co-working, retail, and events. These hybrid models create diversified revenue streams, making cafés more resilient to economic fluctuations. Success will hinge on finding the right balance between coffee service and additional offerings.

8. More Buy The Drip Content
In 2025, we’re going all in on content creation with a goal to deliver 52 newsletters, 40 podcast episodes, and 40 YouTube videos. It’s a big push that means stepping past self-doubt and fully embracing the creative process. Our mission is to share insights, stories, and ideas that inspire, giving back to the coffee community as our way of contributing to an industry that has given us so much.

Dave’s Take;

The coffee industry is transforming….balancing craft with convenience, embracing technology, and striving for sustainability. Home brewing is thriving, small-footprint cafes are booming, and AI could reshape quality control. But alongside these shifts, challenges like packaging innovation and market volatility remind us that progress requires responsibility.

What stands out most is how the industry is becoming more inclusive and creative. Competitions are opening up, new brewing methods are being explored, and signature drinks are becoming the norm, making coffee more accessible and diverse.

As we move into 2025, coffee’s evolution is exciting, unpredictable, and full of potential. The key will be embracing change while staying true to what makes coffee universally loved… connection, flavour, and community.

Reading: Four Thousand Weeks: Time Management for Mortals by Oliver Burkeman
As 2025 kicks off, this is the kind of book to help you rethink time, focus on what truly matters, and start the year with clarity and purpose. It’s not just about getting organized…it’s about getting after it.. LFG!

Watching: Buy The Drip dives into James Hoffmann’s Decaf Project, tasting four variations of Colombian coffee processed using Swiss Water, CO₂, and Ethyl Acetate. The twist? Four national champions tried them in 35°C heat while Paul and I tackled the tasting in -35°C here in Canada… 

Listening: Ludovico Einaudi – “Experience”. This piano piece is the perfect blend of calm and excitement, offering a moment to pause, reflect, and energize. Whether you’re winding down or gearing up for something big, it’s the ideal track to set the mood.

Brewing: I’m brewing the Lamastus Family Estates / Panama Symmetrical Elida ASD Washed Geisha. With Cole away, I got lucky and snagged the chance to enjoy this stunning coffee. The cup is bursting with strawberry and cherry notes, balanced by delicate overtones of orange blossom.  

Coffee Cherries getting ready to be brewed…

respond with a photo of your brew bar or get creative with an AI generated scene and we’ll feature and share in an upcoming week of BTD

Distance: Buy the Drip run club.

Got any idea’s for us to revamp this? Let us know

Want to join us as we hit the road? Let’s connect on Strava! or, join our Whoop group – just respond to the email and let’s grind together!